When's the last time you washed a rental car?

That question or concept came from an Air Force sergeant back in the 1980s, and it perfectly captures what's happening in our economy right now. The sergeant was explaining to his general why their new system worked better: when you own something—really own it—you take care of it differently.

Right now, too many Americans feel like they're driving rental cars through this economy. The stock market hits new highs while Main Street struggles. The news tells us one story while your grocery bill tells you another. The headlines aren't what's really happening in your neighborhood.
‍

The Question No One Wants to Ask

The gap between stock market growth and the 'Main Street economy' has become impossible to ignore. We don't think the US is in a recession yet, but a friend posed an interesting question: "Would any administration allow the National Bureau of Economic Research to declare a recession during an election season?"

Our view is to focus not on the noise, but on what we can control. We take emotion out of it, think through scenarios, and plan for the unpredictable. We're not always right—no one can foresee every possibility. We don't aim to be pessimistic; we aim to be realistic. We don't see the world as we want it, but as it actually is.

As we search for answers, the ones provided rarely make sense if you stop to think about them for more than a few minutes. Almost nothing makes sense anymore. There is no official narrative that's universally agreed upon.

What the Data Actually Shows

Markets have seemingly baked in this near-certainty that the Federal Reserve will reduce rates this week. That's at least 0.25% positive news for your Wednesday. This could improve lending environments slightly and may indicate the first in a series of downward rate adjustments to incentivize economic activity.
‍

But here's what's been happening beneath the surface lately: the US Dollar to Euro relative value has dropped to a four-year low. Other large economies/countries are not holding dollars the way they were 10 months ago.

Is international confidence slipping? Not only is our currency affected, but foreign appetite for US treasuries is also waning. Among the top 10 US treasury holders, only the UK and Ireland are increasing their positions. Japan, China, Canada, France, and Belgium are all reducing their exposure to the US economy.
‍

Meanwhile, domestic indicators paint a mixed picture. Recent months delivered the lowest job growth since 2010 (excluding early pandemic disruption). Unemployment reached 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years, though still historically manageable. Fed policymakers are growing increasingly worried about labor market health.

Stock market concentration risk climbs higher. Even at a fintech company where we embrace AI and automation, I notice some people seem almost intoxicated by artificial intelligence while others are on the opposite end of the spectrum, desperately cling to their humanity. It's another fascinating divide. Having missed the dot-com era, I can't help wondering if that bubble felt similar to this moment.

Don't Bet the Farm On It

The farm is a bellwether: an indicator of trends. Agriculture will be, and has always been, critical to any country's economic stability and trade relations. Economists consistently track farm health, and the broader agricultural industry, as an important early indicator of potential economic shifts.

What we're seeing in 2025 has been different in an unpredictable way.

The US farm sector is getting slaughtered by tariffs. Soybean, corn, and pork sales saw the sharpest contractions, with recent months seeing zero soybean shipments and the lowest monthly agricultural sales since 2005. Q3 2025 will be the lowest in decades.
‍

The lack of Chinese buyers triggered crop surpluses, falling land values, and delayed purchases of machinery and fertilizer. When farmers can't afford equipment, when land values fall, when entire crop harvests sit unsold, when labor uncertainty reaches critical levels, this becomes more than just an agricultural problem. This could be an economic canary in the coal mine. No one knows if farmers have sufficient savings to outlast the trade war timeline. The agriculture industry is navigating uncharted territory with multiple sources of stress.

Off the farm, households are starting to feel the pressure from tariffs. Here's what just happened with credit scores and why this matters:

• Credit card utilization increased while delinquency rates reached levels not seen since 2009
• Student loan delinquency rates spiked following the end of pandemic forbearance
• Gen Z saw the largest credit score drops of any generation

Not trying to fear-monger - this is just the latest data. When young adults can't manage their credit, when families are maxing out credit cards, when student loans are defaulting at unprecedented rates, when farm incomes are dropping by 25%, we're looking at stress in the foundations of the system.

Traditional economic indicators are sending mixed signals. The chasm between financial markets and real economic conditions continues to widen. The pace of change has never been faster.

Remember that Air Force sergeant's question about washing rental cars? The answer reveals everything about the psychology of ownership. People don't take care of things they don't own.

Right now, many Americans feel like they're renting their economic future rather than owning it. They're watching their purchasing power erode, their credit scores drop, their job security diminish - all while being told the economy is strong because stock prices are booming to new all time high.

‍

What This Means for You

Here's what you can control: your financial planning, your investment strategy, your risk management. You can't control tariff policies or Federal Reserve decisions or global trade wars.

You can control how prepared you are for whatever comes next.

This is exactly where working with a financial advisor becomes so beneficial. Not because they can predict the future, no one can, but because they can help you build a plan that works regardless of what the future brings. They help you separate signal from noise, focus on what matters, and make decisions based on your specific situation rather than general market hysteria.

When you work with a financial advisor, you're not just getting investment management or a financial plan or an armchair economist like me. You're getting someone who helps you take ownership of your financial outcomes. Someone who asks the right questions, helps you think through scenarios, and keeps you focused on long-term goals when short-term chaos dominates headlines.

The world feels uncertain because it is uncertain. Change is constant. The markets and economy feels disconnected because they is disconnected. But your response doesn't have to be uncertain or disconnected.

You can take ownership and take action by planning ahead.

If you don't currently work with a financial advisor, or if your current advisor isn't helping you navigate these complex intersections of policy and markets, it's time to make a change.

Find your financial advisor on AdvisorFinder

The air force sergeant knew something important: when you feel ownership, you act differently. You take better care. You pay closer attention. You make better decisions.

Stop renting your financial future. Start owning it.

AdvisorFinder sends an email newsletter 2-3 times per month. This email newsletter post was published on 9/17/2025.

‍

This post was primarily written by Drew Keever. Edited by our content team.

‍

P.S. If you enjoy content like this, consider subscribing and sharing so we can continue growing this newsletter and analyzing the data that matters to you. That Air Force sergeant understood something fundamental: ownership changes how people think and act. The same psychology applies everywhere - including your financial decisions. Sometimes the best ownership is shared ownership.